Konferenz: "Europe's Strategic Choices 2019" zusammen mit Chatham House

ISPK Chatham House Logo

 

Europe’s Strategic Choices (ESC) 2019

ESC 2019

Am 7. und 8. November 2019 richtete das ISPK gemeinsam mit Chatham House die „Europe’s Strategic Choices“-Konferenz im Ritz-Carlton Berlin aus. Die Konferenz brachte in ihrem sechsten Jahr über 300 Teilnehmerinnen und Teilnehmer aus Wirtschaft, Politik und akademischer Forschung zusammen. Gemeinsam wurden die gegenwärtigen und zukünftigen strategischen Herausforderungen und Entscheidungen vor denen Europa steht, im Rahmen von Plenarsitzungen, Keynotes und Break-out Session diskutiert. Zur Förderung des offenen Dialogs und Austausch unter den Teilnehmerinnen und Teilnehmern galt in der Mehrheit der Sessions die „Chatham House Rule“.

Das Programm der Konferenz umfasste folgende Themen

Donnerstag, 7. November 2019
 

Welcome
 

Opening Remarks with Dr. Dietmar Woidke, Minister President, Federal State of Brandenburg, President of the Federal Council


Plenary Session One | European Multilateralism and Global Power Competition

PS1

The resurgence of geopolitics and great power competition, and the simultaneous exposure of the limits of the rules-based international order, present a challenge to Europe at a moment of internal pressure on the cohesion of its institutions as champions of multilateralism. In an international environment increasingly marked by multipolarity and new and emerging tensions in the security and economic space, the question of how key European multilateral systems and institutions can continue to function is ever more relevant. How can Europe’s multilateral framework be effective in tackling global issues without falling victim to great power competitions? To what extent is Europe, and the EU, in a position to look after its own security interests and carry its share of responsibility as a global security provider? Where should Europe concentrate its diplomatic weight to make its voice heard? How can Europe navigate current and potential trade conflicts and tariff wars? In an increasingly transactional and politicized environment for global trade and economic relations, how can international businesses navigate the challenges this presents? What consequences would an authoritarian alignment between Russia and China have for Europe’s strategic choices? In what ways and with what means should the EU and the UK deal with the increasingly controversial character of international relations?

  • Sir Julian King, Commissioner for Security Union, European Commission
  • Dr Andreas Nick MdB, Member of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, German Bundestag, and Head of the German Delegation to the Council of Europe
  • Sir Martin Donnelly, President, Boeing Europe, and Managing Director, Boeing UK and Ireland
  • Stacey Farnen Bernards, Vice President, Government Relations Europe, Middle East, Africa and India, Honeywell International
  • Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Head of the US and the Americas Programme, and Dean of the Queen Elizabeth II Academy, Chatham House

 

Breakout Sessions – Round One

A The Opportunities and Challenges in China’s Economic Ascendency

BS_R1_A

China’s ascendency as an economic power offers Europe opportunities as well as generating fears. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road present avenues for increased trade, and the sharing of technological innovations such as 5G has the potential to enhance Europe’s competitiveness. Concerns remain, however, regarding China’s adherence to widely held norms in the global economy, and disputes between Chinese companies and the US government are indicative of the potential for disruption. How can European policy-makers bridge the consensus gap on issues that threaten Europe’s ability to effectively take advantage of economic opportunities with China? What exactly are the trade-offs for Europe’s deeper economic engagement with China? Can Europe take advantage of potential benefits while at the same time managing risks relating to competitiveness and security?

  • Dr Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow on China, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
  • Dr Leslie Young, Professor of Economics, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business
  • Prof Dr Doris Fischer, Chair, China Business and Economics, University of Würzburg
  • Jörn Ekkehard Beißert, Director, China Division, Federal Foreign Office
  • Chair: Dr Sarah Kirchberger, Head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Strategy and Security, Institute for Security Policy, University of Kiel

 

B Ghosts of Conflicts Past? The Danger of Conflict in Europe’s Wider Neighbourhood and the Challenges of Prevention

BS_R1_B

With the return of armed conflict to its neighbourhood in Syria and Ukraine, Europe has been challenged to respond to numerous crises simultaneously, stretching its political, diplomatic, military and crisis- response capacities. At the same time, political instability and the potential for new or further escalating armed conflicts in other regions such as the Western Balkans, the Baltic Sea and Black Sea, the Levant and the Persian Gulf (Iran) and Northern Africa (Algeria, Sudan and Libya) have increased. What are the risks of new wars and armed conflicts in Europe’s neighbourhood? What are the most likely scenarios for the evolution of ongoing conflicts? Is Europe capable of dealing with further escalation of conflict in its neighbourhood, or have the current crises already overwhelmed Europe’s diplomatic, economic and military capacities? What approaches and capacities for conflict prevention does Europe possess, and what are the past examples of (successful and unsuccessful) conflict prevention efforts?

  • Dr Christopher Coker, Professor of International Relations and Director of IDEAS, London School of Economics
  • Ben Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for Policy Analysis (CEPA), and former Commander, US Army Europe
  • Paul Landes, Head, National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing, Israel
  • Liana Fix, Program Director, International Affairs, Körber Foundation
  • Chair: Kristina Kausch, Senior Resident Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States

 

C European Climate Action

BS_R1_C

Europe’s policy-makers and business leaders are assessing prospects for stepping up collaboration on climate action. 2018 saw wildfires rage across the Iberian Peninsula, and the security risks posed by climate change are increasingly clear. However, political and economic roadblocks – Brexit, populist rhetoric and sentiments, concerns over economic competitiveness – could complicate action to mitigate and manage climate risks and the impact of climate change. Has the current political dynamic in Europe led to new alliances and fault lines in global climate action? What avenues are there for deeper cooperation? What risks does climate change pose for European security? Where can these be anticipated? What do international climate objectives mean for European businesses? How can governments and non-state actors work together to take advantage of the latest technological advances and build a low-carbon future? Can discussion on climate change be depoliticized? What steps can be taken to achieve this?

  • Prof Dr Daniela Jacob, Director, Climate Service Center Germany
  • Janne Peljo, Project Director, Climate Solutions, Sitra
  • Prof Dr Carlo Jaeger, Chairman, Global Climate Forum
  • Chair: Sven Egenter, Editor-in-Chief and Executive Director, Clean Energy Wire

 

Plenary Session Two | The Search for European Economic Growth

PS2

As technological developments and demographic shifts continue to dramatically alter global and regional economies, and rising inequalities lead to disaffection with globalization, many stakeholders are re- evaluating how to harness opportunities and adapt policies to pursue more inclusive growth. Which specific technologies are poised to cause the most disruption, and in what ways? Which sectors and regions are likely to be most affected in terms of employment? What are the implications of evolving economic disparities for political and social dynamics across Europe, and do proposed policy solutions exist? How can public and private actors work together to stimulate sustainable employment while promoting productivity and economic competitiveness?

  • Prof Dr Anke Hassel, Professor of Public Policy, Hertie School
  • Andreas Schell, Chief Executive Officer, Rolls-Royce Power Systems
  • Prof Dr Christoph Meinel, CEO and Scientific Director, Hasso Plattner Institute
  • Chair: Dr Robin Niblett CMG, Director, Chatham House

 

Breakout Sessions – Round Two

A Europe and its Southern Neighbourhood

BS_R2_A

The current dynamics in countries across Europe’s southern neighbourhood, in the southern Mediterranean and North Africa, and further south in the Sahel, present complex policy and security questions for European policy-makers. The challenges of weak statehood, economic stagnation and political conflicts are increasingly exacerbated by a growing population, irregular migration and the adverse effects of climate change. The nature of the crises in the region is undergoing a major transformation and necessitates the recalibration of European policy at a time when it is becoming a theatre upon which established (US, Russia) and emerging (India, China) international players are interacting with each other and vying for influence. Is Europe’s quest for ‘stability’ possible without transformation in its southern neighbourhood? Does Europe have a common approach to this region and countries within it? How is Europe interacting with both old and new international players in the region? What are the motives for Europe’s engagement? How are these contrasted by those of other international and regional powers? How can different actors promote peace and stability in the region? Which instruments are most effective, and how can efforts be better coordinated?

  • Güney Yildiz, Visiting Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
  • Judy Dempsey, Editor, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe
  • Dr Nick Westcott, Director, Royal African Society
  • Chair: Christian Patz, Researcher, Project Coordinator ‘Europe's Strategic Choices’, Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK)

 

B Artificial Intelligence

BS_R2_B

Breakthroughs in machine learning are transforming the working environment and increasingly having an impact on societies. The potential to unlock new opportunities cannot be overstated, however there is a risk of unleashing too much too quickly and without adequate forethought on how to effectively govern and utilize artificial intelligence (AI). What are the real-world applications of machine learning right now, and what are the greatest present-day risks? Which industries are poised for massive disruption? Which regions are most likely to be affected, and what does this mean for policy-making? In the race for technological supremacy, how can a 'race to the bottom' be avoided when it comes to AI regulation? Can countries or companies be realistically expected to cooperate in this area? Could AI's integration exacerbate economic inequality in Europe? How can this be mitigated? Given recent concerns surrounding AI decision-making prejudice, can AI systems be imbued with values? Is there consensus over what these values should be?

  • Prof Dr Christoph Meinel, CEO and Scientific Director, Hasso Plattner Institute
  • Philippe Lorenz, Project Director, AI and Foreign Policy, Stiftung Neue Verantwortung
  • Prof Dr Dagmar Monett, Professor of Computer Science, Berlin School of Economics and Law
  • Chair: Dr Sandro Gaycken, Director, Digital Society Institute, European School of Management and Technology

 

C The Future of European Trade

BS_R2_C

Whatever formula for Brexit that is eventually agreed will require a recalibration of many existing trade relations and an inevitable period of change. With slow progress on free trade agreements, and a shift towards national protectionism, this session will examine potential long-term consequences for Europe's trading environment. What is the potential that developments such as Brexit will lead to longer-term protectionist trade policies in Europe? How will further escalation of tensions between the US and its trading partners affect global trade? To what extent have decades of European integration weakened the UK's ability to strike trade deals with major economies? What new trade patterns and relationships are emerging, regionally and globally?

  • Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Research Fellow, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House
  • Dr Stephanie Leupold, Head of Trade Strategy, DG Trade, European Commission
  • Dr Stefan Mair, Member of the Executive Board, Federation of German Industries (BDI)
  • Dr Elvire Fabry, Senior Research Fellow, Jacques Delors Institute
  • Dr Holger Hestermeyer, Reader in International Dispute Resolution, King's College London
  • Chair: Iana Dreyer, Founder and Chief Editor, Borderlex.eu

 


Plenary Session Three | Visions for Europe’s Security and Defence Architecture

PS3

In a moment of growing and diverse external challenges to Europe's security architecture, the future shape of European security cooperation seems more open than it has been for decades. With France willing but Germany hesitant to develop the EU's capacities further, NATO remains the common political denominator unaffected by the evolving nature of the EU-UK relationship. The UK and France are vying for Germany to underwrite a future design with different centres: NATO or the EU. But US pressure on members of NATO to contribute more is not subsiding, and any ambition for an increasingly autonomous EU to go 'full-spectrum' is meeting resistance. With the alliance under strain, NATO's symbolic 2019 December summit in London will have to deliver more than a glimpse of where the alliance is headed and where Europeans' priorities for security architecture lie. Which of the two schools of thought - strengthening the European pillar in NATO vs EU strategic autonomy in security and defence - will provide Europe with a better future security arrangement? What are the prospects of NATO-EU cooperation in light of these developments, and how can both organizations find a way to bring the competing interests, preferences and caveats of NATO and EU member states into alignment? What does EU-UK cooperation in the field of security look like? What alternative mechanisms and avenues of cooperation exist outside NATO after Brexit?

  • Lieutenant General Jörg Vollmer, Army Chief of Staff, Germany
  • General Philip Breedlove, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, NATO (2013-16)
  • Dr Fritz Felgentreu MdB, Social Democratic Party, German Bundestag
  • Dr Claudia Major, Senior Associate, Research Division, International Security, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
  • Alex Zino, Director, Customer and Government Relations, Defence, Rolls-Royce
  • Chair: Peter Watkins, Associate Fellow, International Security, Chatham House

 

Conference Dinner and Keynote Conversation Security Challenges and the Current Threat Landscape

Conference Dinner

  • General Philip Breedlove, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, NATO (2013–16)
  • Chair: Dr Robin Niblett CMG, Director, Chatham House

 


Freitag, 8. November 2019

 

Plenary Session Four | How Deep Is the Crisis in the West?

PS4

After a decade of growing nationalism and populism, it is time to ask: what is the nature of the crisis the Western world is going through? International institutions are withering, domestic political institutions are failing and the sense of unity that has prevailed for decades since the 1950s is eroding. There are different approaches to explain this: some observers are naming socio-economic factors, such as globalization and its consequences, deindustrialization, loss of competitiveness and falling wages for major parts of the population. Many blame growing alienation with the political and intellectual elite, with populations seeking alternative narratives having felt patronized by globally oriented political classes. Others blame the impact of digitalization, the rise of social media and the decline of traditional political institutions. This discussion will scrutinize these explanations and others in the context of ongoing political transitions and assess what they mean for the future of European democracies.

  • Prof Dr Joachim Krause, Director, Institute for Security Policy, University of Kiel
  • Dr Michael Kimmage, Professor of History, The Catholic University of America
  • Baroness Falkner of Margravine, Member of the House of Lords
  • Dr Jana Puglierin, Head of Program, Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies, German Council on Foreign Relations
  • Chair: Hans Kundnani, Senior Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

 

Breakout Sessions - Round Three

A The Future of Arms Control: Europe’s Contribution to a Global Solution

BS_R3_A

The breakdown of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has revealed critical strategic concerns and challenges regarding the future of arms control and deterrence in Europe. While the conversation has very much revolved around the continent, key decisions over the future will likely be made outside of Europe. The rise of China and the relevance of its nuclear capabilities for US strategy, Russia's development of new weapons in the intermediate range and the risk of nuclearization in the Middle East have turned the conversation into a global one. This is even more apparent regarding the control of strategic weapons, and the unclear fate of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) risks leaving the world without any limitations on capabilities for its two dominant nuclear powers. What consequences will the breakdown of the INF Treaty and a lack of alternatives have for Europe? What is Europe's role and how should it position itself in the debate over the future of deterrence? What effect does the lack of agreement over the need for a continuation of the INF Treaty and the New START between the US and its allies have on NATO? As the inclusion of the Indo-Pacific region into any future global arms control regime will likely pose a number of challenges, what voice, weight and role will Europe have in this conversation? What is the way ahead for conventional arms control in Europe after the death of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)?

  • Ambassador Susanne Baumann, Federal Government Commissioner for Disarmament and Arms Control and Head of the Directorate-General for International Order, the United Nations and Arms Control, Federal Foreign Office
  • Ambassador Ron Prosor, Head, Abba Eban Institute, and Permanent Representative of Israel to the United Nations (2011–15)
  • Dr Pavel Podvig, Senior Researcher, United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research
  • Frank A Rose, Senior Fellow, Security and Strategy – Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
  • Chair: Prof Dr Joachim Krause, Director, Institute for Security Policy, University of Kiel

 

B Skills Demand and the Future of Work

BS_R3_B

Technological developments are dramatically altering the way people and organizations work. Automation and digitization herald opportunities for productivity and other workplace gains, while also reshaping the marketplace for skills required by different sectors. In response to these changes there is a need for policy-makers and employers to engage and develop solutions that match skills supply to the demands of the 21st-century workplace. How is the nature of skills demand changing and what is driving these changes? How can policy-makers pursue more active labour market policies that involve all stakeholders? What are some examples of innovative policies for remedying skills mismatching in the labour market? To what extent can these be replicated across different regions and industries? How can governments and businesses utilize technology to equip people with the necessary skills for a 21st-century labour market?

  • Vice Admiral Rainer Brinkmann, Vice Chief, German Navy and Commander, German Fleet and Supporting Forces
  • Siria Taurelli, Strategic Project Leader, European Training Foundation
  • Arek Jaworski, Director of Education, DACH, Russia and CIS, Pearson
  • Dr Tilman Tacke, Partner, McKinsey Global Institute
  • Chair: Mark Keese, Head Employability and Skills, OECD

 

C Connected Markets and Eurozone Fiscal Policy

BS_R3_C

Europe’s coordination of economic and fiscal policies remains mired in complexities, with its Monetary Union and Capital Markets Union lacking progress and a lot of reforms still needed. The question of which reforms provide the optimal basis for future prosperity is yet to be agreed upon but breaking the inherent procyclicality according to which the eurozone operates, and which has affected the potential growth of the peripheral countries, is key. What kind of countercyclical devices are needed in the eurozone to allow it to operate more closely and target investment to regions that require support? Is there a consensus on the need to reduce risks and how to achieve risk sharing? What are the strategic choices for the eurozone internationally in terms of cross-border flows? To what extent do growth and investment need new rules and institutions in Europe? In a European landscape increasingly characterized by volatility, how can regulators create optimal frameworks to foster economic growth and stability?

  • Karel Lannoo, Chief Executive, CEPS
  • Michael Theurer MdB, Vice Chairman, Free Democratic Parliamentary Group, German Bundestag
  • Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser and Board Member, Centre for Economics and Business Research
  • Pepijn Bergsen, Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House
  • Chair: Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Research Fellow, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

 

Closing Conversation | The Search for a New Common Understanding

Closing_Conversation

As the traditional consensus about the core of the European project and its key narratives weaken, the question of a new common understanding for the EU and the relationship with its associates must be asked anew. The traditional scenario of France and Germany defining the way ahead no longer seems feasible, as two diverging visions of the EU’s future have caused the engine of European integration to stutter: while France seems intent on taking the road of majority decision-making in a strengthened or altogether new supranational framework, Germany is hesitant and interested in preserving intergovernmental decision-making and a strict fiscal policy. At the same time, EU-sceptic governments in Hungary and Poland are focused on balancing against Franco-German designs that seek to limit their national sovereignty. While the incoming European Commission may provide advocates of an ever-closer union with a renewed sense of purpose and energy, the chances are high that Eurosceptic and anti-EU forces will remain strong and resilient in their pursuit to build a coherent anti-EU movement. This session will discuss competing visions for Europe, the drivers behind their support and adoption, and the progress towards a common understanding of the continent’s future.

  • Prof Dr Henrik Enderlein, President and Professor of Political Economy, Hertie School, and Director, Jacques Delors Institute Berlin
  • Ambassador Peter Wittig, German Ambassador to the United Kingdom
  • Karel Lannoo, Chief Executive, CEPS
  • Shada Islam, Director, Europe and Geopolitics, Friends of Europe
  • Chair: Quentin Peel, Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

 

Closing Remarks

Closing_Remarks

  • Professor Dr Joachim Krause, Director, Institute for Security Policy, University of Kiel
  • Dr Robin Niblett CMG, Director, Chatham House

 

Weitere Informationen

Den Link zur ausführlichen Konferenzwebseite finden Sie auch unter
https://www.chathamhouse.org/europes-strategic-choices

Eine Zusammenfassung der Inhalte und Ergebnisse der Konferenz (in englischer Sprache) findet sich demnächst hier.

Die Bilder sind urheberrechtlich geschützt und dürfen nicht ohne ausdrückliche Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers verwendet werden (© Bernhard Ludewig, Bernhard Ludewig Fotografie, 2019).

 

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